Global Cotton Outlook 2026/27 – 2035/36

 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Economic Fundamentals

• The January 2026 World Economic Outlook, released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), projects global GDP growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, broadly in line with the estimated 3.3% growth in 2025.

Global Cotton Production and Consumption

• Global cotton production and consumption are projected to track closely over the next ten years. Global cotton consumption is forecast at about 118.4 million bales* in 2026/27, 0.5 million bales lower than the previous year. With consumption expected to grow moderately, averaging about 1.1% per year, it is projected to reach around 134.5 million bales by 2035/36.
• With limited demand growth, production is projected to increase proportionally to consumption,increasing to about 121.6 million bales in 2026/27 (up 2.6 million bales) and reaching around 136.8 million bales by 2035/36.
• Over the projection period, leading cotton producers are forecast to be (share of world production in parentheses): China (27%), India (21%), Brazil (14%), United States (11%), Pakistan (5%), and Australia (4%).
• Mill use is projected to remain concentrated in Asia. By 2035/36, countries that lead the world in cotton mill use are projected to be (share of world mill use in parentheses): China (32%), India (20%), Pakistan (9%), Vietnam (7%), Bangladesh (6%), and Turkey (5%).

* 1 bale = 480 pounds

Global Cotton Trade

• Being consistent with mill use growth, world cotton trade over the projection period is expected to grow by 1.3% per year on average.
• Among major cotton-exporting countries, Brazil has overtaken the United States as the world’s largest cotton exporter for the third consecutive season, accounting for about 34% of global cotton trade in 2025/26. Growth in global cotton demand is being driven mainly by expanding textile and apparel production in emerging textile producing countries, particularly Vietnam and Bangladesh, as their textile and apparel industries expand.
• The leading cotton importers are projected to be Vietnam (19%), Bangladesh (18%), and China (14%).

Cotton A-Index outlook

• Amid ongoing global economic uncertainty and further complicated by upcoming U.S. trade negotiations that may lower tariffs across multiple sources, influencing global demand for cotton-based textile and apparel products, the Cotton A-Index has trended downward since its 2021/22 peak of nearly 120 cents per pound. Going forward, prices are projected to recover gradually, averaging about 83 cents per pound in 2026/27 and rising to around 95 cents per pound by the end of the projection period.

 

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