Dr. Avetisyan's European Tour

Dr. Avetisyan's Presentations

1.       "Assessment of possible global regulatory measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping" by Misak Avetisyan, Jasper Faber, and Tristan Smith presented at the 8th International Symposium on Environment and Energy Finance Issues (ISEFI-2022) on 23-24, May 2022 at IPAG Business School (184 Boulevard Saint-Germain, 75006 Paris, France).

Link to Conference Website

(paper under review)

Abstract

During the last several years, there has been a significant increase in global merchandise trade and it is expected to grow especially between more distant countries. Subsequently, growing trade is likely to stipulate the use of international maritime transport, since roughly ninety percent of the world trade is carried via sea transport. International transportation is one of the substantial sources of global emissions, producing about 14% of global Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG), and growing trade is expected to further increase the share of transport emissions and contribute to climate change.

This issue has drawn more attention as the negative impacts of the GHG emissions become more serious and significant. The International Maritime Organization, a UN body, has adopted a Greenhouse Gas Strategy that sets the ambition to reduce GHG emissions by at least 50% in 2050 and phase them out altogether as soon as possible in this century.

In this paper we analyze which policy measures are able to achieve significant maritime transport emission reductions and then we develop assessment criteria for evaluation of the relative merits of the different mid- and long-term policy measures. We also develop a methodology based on the energy-environmental version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP-E) with transport mode substitution that enables an appropriate representation of the dynamics and responses of both the shipping system and global/national economies. Using our proposed analysis methodology in a number of case studies in order to produce outputs for small island states, developing and least developed countries, we illustrate the methodology and its capabilities, as well as produce evidence about how specific policy measures may have impacts on specific nations' economic development and security.

 

2.       "The Impacts of Economic Sanctions on Production and Trade of Sanctioned Goods" by Misak Avetisyan and David Lektzian presented at the Society for Risk Analysis - Europe 30th Annual Conference, on June 12-15, 2022 at the University of Novi Sad (Trg Dositeja Obradovica 6, Novi Sad, Serbia).

Link to Conference Website

(paper in the process of becoming a book chapter)

Abstract

It is well established that free trade generates larger gains. However, various forms of export control such as tariffs, quotas, taxes, etc. applied by developed and developing countries may substantially reduce gains from trade. In this paper we apply a unique methodological refinement of the computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach using the modified version of the dynamic Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to understand the effect of various types and levels of international sanctions on the severity and dissipation of economic losses over time.

Although the costs of international sanctions will mainly be borne by the targeted country , reducing or eliminating the exports of certain goods from sender countries entering the sanctioned market makes them relatively expensive, and spurs imports of such goods from its other trading partners, thus also having significant impact on the choice of international transport mode. Also, the targeted goods become cheaper in sending countries due to increased domestic supply. Although, this has the effect of initially advantaging sender countries, the long run negative impacts of international sanctions may dissipate and undermine the intended effects in the targeted economy due to adjustment to sanctions through increased domestic production of targeted goods and trade substitution with other trading partners.

 

3.       "Mode Choice, Emissions and Carbon Taxes" by Misak Avetisyan and Wesley Wilson presented at the 27th Annual Conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists on June 28 - July 1, 2022 at Pala Congressi of Rimini (Via della Fiera, 23, 47923 Rimini, Italy).

Link to Conference Website

(paper in progress)

Abstract

Transportation is one of the major sources of anthropogenic emissions.  However, most environmental regulations target production emissions rather than transportation emissions.  And, within the transport sector, there are considerable differences in emissions intensities across modes.  In this paper, we develop and estimate a multinomial logit model of consumer mode choices for non-local travel using the 2017 Household Travel Survey.  The model is specified as a function of trip cost, travel time, and a variety of household characteristics.  We then use the estimates to assess the impacts of incremental carbon taxes from none to $150/tCO2 on modal choices and emissions.  We find that there are mode shifts to more fuel efficient modes along with reductions in emissions as taxes increase.  We also find almost linear relationship between carbon prices and abatement of non-local transport emissions with the largest reduction observed under $150/tCO2.