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Texas Tech University

Prof. Igor Cialenco

Coherent estimation of risk measuresProf. Igor Cialenco - Dept. of Applied Mathematics, Illinois Institute of Technology

Date:
Friday, Feb. 27, 2026
2:00 PM—3:00 PM
Location:
online

Coherent estimation of risk measuresProf. Igor Cialenco - Dept. of Applied Mathematics, Illinois Institute of Technology

We develop a statistical framework for risk estimation, inspired by the axiomatic theory of risk measures. Coherent risk estimators—functionals of P&L samples inheriting the economic properties of risk measures—are defined and characterized through robust representations linked to L-estimators. The framework provides a canonical methodology for constructing estimators with sound financial and statistical properties, unifying risk measure theory, principles for capital adequacy, and practical statistical challenges in market risk. A numerical study illustrates the approach, focusing on expected shortfall estimation under both i.i.d. and overlapping samples relevant for regulatory FRTB model applications.