Nikki Kantelis discusses how the lower prices will shape the future of the industry, especially for West Texas.
Texas Tech University's Nikki Kantelis, an assistant professor of practice in energy commerce in the Jerry S. Rawls College of Business, said while the declining prices are a supply issue stemming from the oil war in the Middle East, specifically Saudi Arabia and Russia, they also are, in part, attributed to a lack of demand resulting from COVID-19.
What are the short-term impacts of the drop in oil and gas prices?
Normally, you would expect to see some uptick in demand with low oil and gas prices.
A big uptick in demand requires sustained low prices for structural and behavioral
changes. This time, COVID-19 has destroyed demand (demand for travel, demand for manufacturing,
demand at the retail level, etc.) which outweighs typical responses to price signals.
What are the long-term impacts we will see in the next few months and years?
If the low prices are sustained, domestic energy (oil and gas) will see a major and
almost devastating collapse and re-structuring. However, that reduction should end
the price war between the Saudis and Russia, and we should see some price rebound
and a resurgent fracking industry, albeit at a lower level of production than in 2019-2020.
Saudi Arabia and Russia cannot withstand long-term, low oil prices and simultaneously
satisfy their domestic needs.
COVID-19 should not be a factor longer term, so demand should rebound, thereby saving refiners, midstream and retail from major re-structuring.
What influence does the COVID-19 outbreak have on oil and gas prices, especially as
demand has dropped with more stay-at-home orders being issued?
The outbreak has led to demand destruction and negative price pressures, particularly
for motor gasoline and jet fuel. It also has crushed refining margins, reduced volumes
moving through infrastructure and resulted in lower midstream and retail income.
How does this price drop compare to other drastic decreases in history? What is unique
about this situation?
Previous significant oil price collapses (1986, late 1990s and 2014) were different
than what we see currently. Previous price collapses could be attributed to either
an over- supply or "soft" demand. In the current situation, we have both an over-supply
(overproduction and flooding of Saudi and Russian crude oil into market) and soft
demand (COVID-19 pandemic means less travel, less manufacturing and thus less energy
demand) issues. Both the supply and demand issues will have to be resolved prior to
a return to market normalcy.
Do you expect prices to continue dropping in the coming weeks or will it start to
pick back up soon?
Prices reflect the current supply/demand balance, as well as the expectations that
Saudi Arabia will flood the market with more barrels of production, as threatened.
Under this scenario, crude oil prices should bottom out at $15-20/barrel (barring
any sort of OPEC production agreement) but we should expect to see continued lowering
of gasoline retail prices until retail margins reach more normal levels. Currently,
retail gasoline margins are quite high – the price of gasoline at the pump compared
with wholesale prices for gasoline.
How do the declining prices specifically impact the West Texas and Permian Basin region
as one of the largest oil and gas producers?
There are several Permian producers that will not survive the current price collapse.
Those carrying too much debt and those with weak balance sheets are particularly vulnerable.
Investors and operators currently are focused on free cashflow, and those who can
cover their variable costs in the short run will continue to operate. However, we
should expect continued cost-cutting, potential layoffs and significant cutbacks in
capital expenditures during this challenging price environment. As has been the case
in the past, we can expect some entities will opportunistically come in and buy assets
and companies for "pennies on the dollar."
Is there anything else you would like to add?
We are all "waiting and seeing." It's hard to know the timing and when we might "get
back to normal." Markets hate uncertainty, and we should expect oil and gas prices
to continue to be volatile until we re-establish some normalcy. Unfortunately, none
of us knows when that is likely to happen.